Sunday, 12 July 2015

Ajax Downs Selections July 12

Today is Challenge Day at Ajax Downs! We have three featured races today, the John Deere Regional Juvenile Challenge, the AQHA Challenge Maiden, and the Adequan Regional Derby Challenge. The Adequan features two new faces to Ajax, including Hialeah Derby winner Seize the Win! It's a terrific card. First post is 12:55 ET. Here are my selections.

Race 1: 7-1A-4
Welcome to Ajax Downs! #7 EYE SELECT is looking for her first win in her sixth career start. She ran a good second on Canada Day and always races well when she faces rivals she fits with. #1A IAMASWEETMAN got his maiden win facing a soft group of Ontario Sired runners on Canada Day and goes into the Speed Index Race instead of a NW2 Allowance. He & his entrymate should both fit well here. #4 DOWN N TUFF is another maiden facing winners. He was second best in a maiden Speed Index on June 21, but his speed figures suggest he can be competitive against this group. The Daily Double starts in this race.

Race 2: 7-4-5
This race starts the early Pick 3. #7 A MERE OUTLAW was a winner at Hialeah back in January, but hasn't been as effective in three starts since, most recently facing a tough group of NW4/Op$10,000CLM. She drops back in to a NW3, and was freshened up with a good breeze on Wednesday. #4 LEXIA was a game winner in a NW2 on May 31. The runner up, Selective Memory, came back to win a NW2 and also appears in this race. She goes off Lasix today. #5 TWO FAMOUS EAGLES makes his Ajax debut here. He exits a maiden win at Indiana Grand. I would rather see him in a NW2, which he is still eligible for, but good American shippers are usually dangerous.

Race 3: 4-5-2
#4 GRASSHOPPER FLATS has had poor luck in both of his starts this year, but still managed to put in respectable performances. With a clean trip he may be able to find his way into the winner's circle. #5 DOWN ON CASH has been second in both of her starts this season, also having some poor trip luck. She's shown that she's game and just needs to put it all together. #2 ITZ ALL GOOD made his career debut on June 21, keeping close early but weakening after bumping with Down On Cash after 220 yards. He could improve with a start under his belt.

Race 4: 5-2-1
Race 4 kicks off the $.20 Pick 4. #5 JESS KISS MY DASH debuts here for the combo of Kim Ito and Brian Bell. He is the full brother to Jesskissmytexas, a multiple Stakes winner, out of Strawfly Fortune, who was a top mare here back in 2004 and 2005. He has shown steady improvement in his workouts and should be tough here. #2 CR BLOWINBYEYAWL showed improvement in his last start, finishing a half length behind Embrace Extravagence. He wasn't great, but I have a feeling 220 is not his best distance. Today's 300 yard run may be better for him. #1 CASINO LOVE MILL debuts here after training down in Michigan. Her works have been okay, they don't jump off the page. Her dam was an okay claiming mare down in Texas and Louisiana, she won two and hit the board in six of her 10 starts. A longshot to round things out, perhaps.

Pick 4 ticket: 5/2,5/1,7,8/3 $1.20 for $.20

Race 5: 5-2-7
This race is our first feature, the $25,560 John Deere Regional Juvenile Challenge. #5 TRES SEA was a very impressive winner on June 21, bumping at the start but drawing off nicely. She's a well bred filly who looks good for a repeat here. #2 COOL ALLEY debuted with a third at Remington, then came up here to finish a rallying third behind Tres Sea, missing second by a neck. The extra distance should benefit him. #7 FOREST GOT SKUNKED debuted at Fair Meadows Tulsa about a month ago and finished a good second. This is a tougher affair. Jockey Berkley Packer will fly in to ride.

Race 6: 8-7-1
This race is our second feature, the $23,715 AQHA Challenge Maiden. #8 WESTERN HAULER WAYNE is one of two in this field who have managed to cross the wire first. He exits a maiden $5,000 claiming win at Fair Meadows Tulsa, has the highest class rating of the field, and looms dangerous in his Ajax debut. #7 RANDOM AUDIT won her first two starts of the year, but took a bump at the start and lost her footing in her most recent outing. With a clean break, she is a threat. #1 EFFORTLESS GAME exits a second behind Embrace Extravagence, a sharp filly who came back to win nicely again (until she was DQd for interference.) Entrymate #1A BLAZIN IVORY has been second in five of her six starts. A solid entry. The late Pick 3 starts here.

Race 7: 3-1-4
Our third and biggest feature of the day is the $29,070 Adequan Regional Derby Challenge. #3 SEIZE THE WIN ended his two year old year with a driving win in the Governor's Stakes at Indiana Grand, then went on to win the $417,000 Hialeah Derby impressively. He's winless in three starts since, exiting a second in a trial for the Heritage Place Derby behind a horse who was beaten a nose in the 2014, G1 Heritage Place Futurity. He is the class of this field in a big way. #1 TOODLES DESTINY has the best shot to beat Seize the Win. This filly has won five of her eight starts, all in Texas and Oklahoma. She exits a win in a $20,000 claiming race at Remington where she posted a very fast 99 speed figure. Owner Bryan Calloway thought she was worth the $20,000 investment and claimed her out of that race. She posted a very quick breeze at Hazel Park on Tuesday. #4 DEAL A FORTUNE has won both of his starts here at Ajax, a NW2 and a NW3 Allowance. He is stepping up in class here and will have a tough time winning, but he should put in a respectable performance. The late Double kicks off here.
Seize the Win winning the Hialeah Derby

Race 8: 10-9-3
#10 JESS WANNA HAVE FUN made her Ajax debut on May 31 over a sloppy track. She rallied to be beaten only a nose that day. Over a fast track she probably would have won. She should be able to get there today. #9 IZA JAZZ GAL makes her debut here. She worked very well on June 23 and I'm looking forward to seeing how she performs here. #3 AGAINST THE CURRENT was beaten only a neck in an Ontario Sired Maiden on June 7. He will face a bit tougher today, but his form has been decent.

Good luck to everyone playing!

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