Saturday, 27 June 2015

Kawartha Downs Selections June 27

I forgot to post my selections for both Kawartha and Ajax up here last week so I'm making sure it gets done this week.

     Kawartha has another 10 race card of harness racing tonight. First post is at 7 PM Eastern, and free programs and a live video feed are up at their website, You can play from home on HPI if you can't make it out to the track.

     Here is this week's Doug on the Downs.

Race 1: 4-2-3
#4 ROYAL MACHERY raced a good second at Flamboro on May 21 but has had the trailing tier in both of his local starts and hasn't performed well. He made a break at the 3/4 last week. He draws better this week, drops in class and gets Gord Brown in the bike. #2 P L INFERNO was a winner here on June 6 and came back to finish third at Georgian with a gapped pocket trip, beaten next to nothing for second. A big threat. #3 BIG LEFT TURN makes his first start of the year off of a 1.57.2 qualifying effort. He showed some ability in his debut at Rideau last year, coming from 6th at 3/4 to finish 3rd by only 3/4 of a length.

Race 2: 5-4-3
#5 SEASONALSUNNY was in contention at 3/4 two weeks back but made a break at the top of the stretch. She raced well against tougher on June 6 and draws a better post than she's had in recent weeks. #4 P L IDOL was a no excuse second last week, taking a big breather in the second 1/4 racing on the front end and not being able to put up a fight down the lane. She has been on the board very consistently so far this year. #3 LINE SPEED made his debut last week, had a poor trip from the trailing spot and finished last. He should be able to get good position from this post and might show a little more tonight.

Race 3: 3-4-5
#3 LEAHS JET has been knocking on the door, with a second two weeks back and a good third last week where she made up good ground in the stretch. She is the absolute one to beat in this field. #4 MEGA SPORTSSTAR was second at the top of the lane last week but faded to be sixth. She makes her third start off the bench and may be a bit sharper tonight. #5 RYANS ROCKETTE has had breaking issues that could hinder her tonight. She finished second in a qualifier 10 days ago and might race well if she stays flat.

Race 4: 1-6-7
#1 BEAU SEELSTER finished third behind the two favourites last week, pacing the back half in 57.4, making up good ground late. He doesn't win often, but he's third off the bench and the two horses who beat him last time draw poorly. Tonight could be the night for him. #6 GO MUD was beaten only a nose last week despite a first over trip from post 6. He's the horse to beat in this field if he puts in the same effort. #7 BETTER ART went to the front, took a second 1/4 breather and was able to fight off Go Mud by a nose. He will have a tougher time winning like that from post 7, but he showed last year that he is a horse who likes to win.

Race 5: 2-3-5
#2 WHIPPEROSA has had poor luck in her three local starts this season, saving no ground and making a late break while in contention two weeks ago. If she can work out a trip tonight, I can certainly see her winning. #3 FLEETWOOD ZENA is in very good form lately, with a win, a second and a third in her last three starts. She no longer has to face Cougar Gal, who's won her last two starts, and she should be very dangerous. #5 HELLO AMERICA hasn't raced poorly in three starts here, she showed some fight when finishing second on June 6, but she needs to improve if she wants to win. She got last week off and may be a bit sharper.

Race 6: 3-4-6
#3 SURGE SEELSTER looks very tough to beat, exiting two very strong wins. If he is as sharp tonight as he has been in his last two, he should win again. #4 IMA HOLY TERROR is a longshot with a chance to race well tonight. He was interfered with and made a break at the 1/4 last week but found his gait and paced third over to be fifth of sixth. With better luck I can see him hitting the board. #6 MAN OF MANY ARTS is the horse with the best chance to beat Surge Seelster. He was second over into a fast pace last week, tipped three wide at the 3/4 and drew off for a win in 1.56 flat. He will probably need a similar pace to close into if he's going to win again tonight.

Race 7: 2-1-6
#2 KINGSTONE comes in from a fourth at Rideau facing $10,000 claimers where he was beaten a 1/2 length for third. On May 10 he came off of a four and a half month break and was beaten only 1/2 a length by Burst Hanover. He has not won in a while but that could change tonight. #1 BURST HANOVER was a winner at Rideau four starts back but has not been as effective since. She was heavily favoured in a $10,000 claimer at Grand River 10 days ago but made a break at the start and finished sixth. The class drop certainly makes her a big factor. #6 CELEBRITY LEGACY is winless in 10 tries this year, but has four seconds, three in his last four starts. He has a lot of backclass, with 20 wins, $262,598 in the bank and a mark of 1.54.3 down at Pompano. Unlike the rest of his competition, he races for the tag because he has exceeded the NW$500L3 condition.

Race 8: 4-6-3
#4 THREE NEW DAWNS led the first over charge last week, was second at the top of the lane but was run down by Motor Shark. He generally races well when he gets a good trip and should be able to do so tonight. #6 MOTOR SHARK followed the cover of Three New Dawns and came home strongly down the stretch for the win. He's a four time winner this year with a mark of 1.55.4 at Flamboro. He deserves respect, big chance to double up. #3 MR XL faced tougher last week from post seven, and raced an un-noteworthy sixth. The week before when facing $5,000 conditioned claimers he was fourth beaten only a length and a 1/2. He should be better than he was last week.

Race 9: 4-1-5
#4 PRETTYDANGEROUS exits back to back third place efforts at Rideau, both of which she's been near the back at the half and launched three wide at 3/4. Last week she took the lead at the top of the stretch but evened out. The week before she was 6th at the top of the stretch and kept making up ground. She has a good shot here. #1 COUGAR GAL has won back to back races, both with front stepping efforts where she's taken a big second 1/4 breather. If she can do that again, she can win tonight. If she is challenged early, there's a chance she may not even hit the board. #5 FLYUSTOTHEMOON had the far outside post last week, went three wide at 3/4 but couldn't get up for anything better than 5th. She was a winner two weeks back with a second over trip and gets a better post to work with tonight.

Race 10: 6-1-4
#6 REMSHEG JULIAN finished 2 1/2 lengths ahead of Ive Got It All last week in an $8,000 claiming handicap at Rideau. Although winless in 2015, he had a good 2014 with 6 wins and 14 top 3 finishes in 27 starts. Reg Gassien takes the drive; he's dangerous. #1 IVE GOT IT ALL was a $6,500 claiming winner at Rideau two starts back but was just an okay 5th in the $8,000 claiming handicap. He is a very consistent sort with a good post to work with tonight. #4 L H SONOFTHETIMES has gone a couple of decent miles this season, most notably a third from the trailing tier two weeks ago. He's very win shy, but he's in good form and can round this race out.

Good luck to everyone joining us tonight!

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