Friday, 12 June 2015

Kawartha Downs Selections June 13

"Doug on the Downs" kicked off last week at Kawartha Downs with four winners on the 10 race card, and now it's time to see if I can do it again. Another 10 race card on tap this weekend at Kawartha, here are my selections.

Race 1: 6-3-5
#6 VEGILANTE HANOVER comes off back to back 3rd place finishes, most recently making up 8 3/4 lengths in the stretch to go from 7th to 3rd, clocking in the mile in 1.57.3. The final 1/4 was slow, it looks like he was shuffled back between 3/4 and 7/8, picking up speed in the final 1/8. #3 WILDCAT CHARLIE hasn't show anything in two starts, but exits a good qualifying effort where he came home in 29.3. He could improve tonight. #5 SCREENWRITER makes his career debut off of a qualifying win. Be cautious betting at a short price; he has made breaks in two of his four qualifiers.

Race 2: 4-7-1
#4 P L INTIMIDATOR has been racing at Mohawk and not having much luck, with a fourth being his best showing in four starts this year. The class drop will help him. #7 EMMY HANOVER finished 2nd with a first-over trip last week after making a break at the start. Despite the tough post she should be tough if she says flat. #1 WINDSUN MADISON started from the trailing tier and finished 5th. She did get a runner up finish two weeks back and starts from a better spot tonight.

Race 3: 1-2-3
#1 COUGAR GAL was part of a fast pace last week, had the lead at the top of the stretch but stopped down the lane. She still went the mile in 1.57.3 and likely will not have to go as fast early as she did last time. #2 FLEETWOOD ZENA went to the front last week, got very easy fractions and won wire-to-wire by 3/4 of a length. She likely will not be able to get away with the same trip this week. #3 SESTINA raced a closing 3rd on opening night but took last week off. Last year she was an 8 time winner who hit the board in 22 of 39 starts with a mark of 1.56.1. She is best coming from behind and will benefit from a hot early pace.

Race 4: 4-1-9
#4 SHININGSTARATNIGHT has not raced particularly well this year for whatever reason, the exception being a 2nd at Flamboro back on March 28. After a disappointing effort on opening night she took an easy qualifying win last week, perhaps as a confidence booster, and drops in class here. #1 CELEBRITY LEGACY strung together three runner up finishes in April and May in $6,000 claimers at Western Fair and Flamboro. He wasn't great at Georgian last week, but he draws a good post tonight and is in better form than most of his competition. #9 L H SONOFTHETIMES didn't show much on opening night and drops in class tonight. Back in the winter he was racing at a high class at Western Fair and managed to get a fourth on December 12. He could find position from the trailing tier.

Race 5: 5-1-8
#5 FLIGHT OF AN ANGEL put in a good closing effort last week, going the mile in 1.59.2. If she has any pace to close into I expect a good effort out of her tonight. #1 CASIMIR NUTMEG came off of an eight month layoff to finish third at this level last week. She can improve second off the bench. #8 PERFECT CIRCLE had a tough post and a tough trip last week, and unfortunately gets another tough post to work with tonight. Her debut two weeks back wasn't a bad race at all given the broken equipment in the stretch. If she does manage to work out a good trip, she may race well at a big price.

Race 6: 7-6-4
#7 CASIMIR NANOOK comes in from Mohawk where she hasn't shown much in her last three starts. Although she draws a tough post here, she catches an easy looking field and should be tough. #6 MIDNIGHT JET raced a good 3rd last week and a 2nd the week before. She'll have to work harder from post 6 than the 3 hole she's gotten in her last two, but she deserves respect here. #4 LUCKY COCKTAIL has been racing in $10,000 claimers at Flamboro and Georgian and she's had some good efforts, beaten only 1 1/2 lengths on April 30th, a runner up on May 7. She had a poor post last week. I expect better tonight.

Race 7: 5-3-2
#5 GO MUD finished 5th in a higher class last week in a race where he gapped from 2nd going quick fractions and tired late. He put in some good efforts in the NW$20,000 at Flamboro this spring and should appreciate the class drop. #3 THREE NEW DAWNS won against this class last week, taking the lead at the half, going an easy 3rd 1/4 and never being challenged down the stretch. He has back class, with $272,114 earnings and 34 wins in his career and should not be tossed. #2 LET THERE BE ROCK finished 4th behind Three New Dawns last week in his first start off the bench with a first over trip. He could certainly improve in his second start with a better trip.

Race 8: 3-4-9
#3 WHIPPEROSA came off of a two month layoff, drew post 7 and raced a good fourth with a second over trip, pacing the back half in 58.1. She takes a small drop in class and is second off the bench here. #4 HELLO AMERICA finished 2nd last week, a length in front of Whipperosa. Both of her local efforts have been good, she is tough to fault in this spot. #9 FLYUSTOTHEMOON is a three time winner this year. She has been racing primarily in $5,000 and $6,000 claimers at Flamboro and Western Fair. Her last effort wasn't very good, but she could turn that around tonight.

Race 9: 5-3-2
#5 DADDY WARBUCKS comes in from Mohawk where he most recently finished 5th, losing ground and coming home in 27.2. He makes his third start of the year here and faces easier company. #3 COLLEGE MAJOR won a local qualifier in a blowout time of 1.55.4, pacing the back half in 57.1. I don't know why they decided to qualify like that, but I do know the horse is capable enough, he was a winner at Woodbine last year, and he will be tough here. #2 BLAZING SAKRA made his first start since 2013 last week, sitting last most of the way and making up ground in the stretch to be fourth. We'll see if he shows any improvement tonight.

Race 10: 1-5-2
#1 NOLANATOR drops in for the tag off of two 4th place finishes against higher levels. Facing easier competition and drawing the rail post tonight, I expect him to be tough. #5 IMA HOLY TERROR was just behind Nolanator last week in his first start off the bench. Although she ended the season racing at Woodbine, her only win last year came at Georgian Downs. She should fit well here. #2 MIGHTY MOUSE has made up ground in the stretch in both of her starts here. She moves inside while the horses who have beaten her have outside draws. She has an outside shot here.

Good luck to everyone playing tonight!

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