Saturday, 27 June 2015

Ajax Downs Selections June 28

Sunday Funday at Ajax Downs, and what a fun one it will be! Today's card has two trials to the Adequan Derby Challenge, featuring two very talented new faces. Most notably, we have Seize the Win, who won the Hialeah Derby in impressive fashion back in January. It's going to be an action packed afternoon.

     Here are my selections for Sunday's races.

Race 1: 4-1-2
Welcome to Ajax Downs! #4 FAVORITE LEADER was a very impressive winner two weeks ago, taking bumps on both sides at the start and surging to get up for the win. With a clean break, she likely would have won that race by a length as opposed to a neck. #1 NOT STEPPIN DOWN dropped to the Speed Index ranks on June 7, bumped at the start and lugged out badly but won by a length, never in doubt. I believe Favorite Leader is the faster horse, but if anyone has a shot to beat her, it's this gelding. #2 CARAWAYS LUV N FAME is a maiden making her first start in the Speed Index ranks. She finished a good second in a weak field on opening day but offered very little in her June 7 race. Her best speed figures make her look the most likely to round out this field. Daily Double wagering is offered here.

Race 2: 2-3-6
This race kicks off the early Pick 3. #2 A MERE OUTLAW faced a tough group of NW4/$10,000 optional claimers last time, breaking slow and offering no rally. She now takes a significant drop to the NW3/optional $5,000 claiming level. She has shown ability in the past, she was a winner at Hialeah Park, she just needs to break fast today. #3 LEXIA rode a clear path along the inside to score a NW2 allowance win in the slop on May 31. The runner up, Selective Memory, went on to win a NW2 allowance by a length. If she runs back to her last effort, she will be a big factor in this race. #6 TWO FAMOUS EAGLES makes his Ajax debut off of a maiden win at Indiana Grand. He's a NW2 facing NW3/Optional Claimers but live shippers from the States are almost always a threat.

Race 3: 3-1-6
Race 3 is the first of two trials to the Adequan Derby Challenge. #3 TOODLES DESTINY has been racing in Texas and Oklahoma, winning five of her eight starts. She exits a win for $20,000 claiming at Remington where she earned a 99 speed figure, a huge number, especially compared to her competition. It will take a lot to beat her. #1 JOHNNY GETTIN CASH was a $10,000 MCL winner at Louisiana Downs, then ran in a high level allowance here against The Fdd Map. That proved to be too tough of an assignment, but he now drops to face only 3 year olds as opposed to older horses. He could improve in his second start over the surface. #6 EYESA SPEEDY SIMON was last year's Ontario Sires Stakes Futurity winner. He only has one start under his belt this year, an Ontario Sired NW2 allowance, where he finished a good 2nd. This is the toughest field he's had to face in his career.

Race 4: 6-3-4
Race 4 is the second of two trials to the Adequan Derby Challange, as well as the start of the $.20 Pick 4. #6 SEIZE THE WIN may be the overlay of the century if he goes off at his ML estimate of 7-2. He has won two Stakes races in his nine race career, including a romp in the $418,000 Hialeah Derby. He didn't fire in the South Florida Derby, but he did get a good runner up finish in a trial for the Heritage Place Derby behind a horse who finished 2nd in the 2014 Heritage Place Futurity (G1) by a nose. He gets to face a much softer bunch than he has been racing with, and he is simply a very talented colt. #3 EMBRACE EXTRAVAGENCE debuted two weeks ago in a 220 yard maiden race, lunged at the start but recovered to get the win. It was impressive. She can certainly move forward now that she has a start under her belt, and while I don't see her (or anyone) upsetting Seize the Win, I think there's a bright future for this filly. #4 DEAL A FORTUNE is two for two here at Ajax Downs, and makes a logical move into this trial after winning his NW3 against older horses. He's likely going to go off as the second choice and is deserving of such odds.

Pick 4 ticket: 6/2,4/6,8/1,3,5,6 $3.20 for $.20.

Race 5: 2-4-6
#2 OURFIRSTORPHAN is a seven time winner with over $116,000 in the bank. He exits a fourth place finish behind The Fdd Map and now drops in class. He hasn't had much luck at the break in her three starts this year, but if he gets away well I think he's the best horse in this field. #4 STORYTIME BLUE has started twice this year, first in a trial to the Picov Maturity and second in an open allowance for fillies and mares. She didn't fire in either of those efforts but now drops to this rank where she should be competitive. #6 I LIKE CHICS was too little too late in his 2015 debut at this level. He did run alright, however, and could move forward in his second start off the bench. This race starts the late Pick 3.

Race 6: 6-8-3
This race is the first leg of the Late Double. #6 EYE SELECT raced a good second on May 31 against Ontario Sired Maidens but couldn't stand up in a trial for the Ontario Sires Stakes Maturity. She drops into a Maiden Speed Index and looks like the fastest horse in the field. #8 ZOOM ZOOMN has crossed the wire first three times but has been DQ'd each time. He has a bad habit of lugging out but has a big shot to get that elusive victory if he stays straight. #3 IAMASWEETMAN faced Maiden Speed Index runners last time, finishing second by a neck. A repeat of that effort puts him in the mix. The underneath spots of this field are a toss up in my opinion.

Race 7: 3-1-6
#3 ARIZONA BENNIE had a good 2 year old season, never finishing worse than second including runner ups in the Alex Picov Memorial Futurity and the Ontario Sires Stakes Futurity. His June 17 workout was good, and I expect him to be able to be just as game as he was last year. #1 ARCTIC SPECIAL exits a second in a NW2 allowance at Hazel Park. He had a poor break that night but did race well to get up for second. He could certainly improve making his second start off the bench. #6 REMEMBER THE MUSIC raced very well in an open NW2 Allowance on May 17 but was outclassed when facing The Fdd Map. She should appreciate dropping into Ontario Sired company.

Good luck to everyone joining us today!

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