Sunday, 24 May 2015

Ajax Downs Selections May 24

It's Sunday so you know what that means: live racing at Ajax Downs! Seven races on tap today, with plenty of full, competitive fields. It's going to be another great day. Here are my selections for today's card.

Race 1: 5-2-3
Welcome to another day of Quarter Horse racing at Ajax Downs! #5 IM PRETTY FAMES won the first race on opening day under a hand ride. She has an edge over her two biggest threats here as she has a race this season, and has a good shot to be the first two-time winner of the meet. #2 I AM SWEET LOVE ended 2014 with a win against Code 36, who was very tough in the Speed Index ranks last year. She has hit the board in all three of her starts at 250 yards. NOTE that her work on MAY 13 was at 220Y, NOT 250Y. #3 SUGAR BEAN PERRY had an inconsistent 2014, running a few good races but a few even efforts, failing to get a win. His best speed figure of the year came in his first start of the year, so he may have a shot at a minor upset. Early Double wagering is offered here.

Race 2: 2-5-4
Race 2 kicks off the Early Pick 3. #2 FIRST LADY KATY was a debut winner here in September, then went down to Hialeah where she raced against Game Rita (who went on to finish second in a Stakes race) in a Derby trial and then finished a good fourth in a $10,000 claimer against older horses, posting a strong speed figure. #5 MOMMYS SWEET SECRET raced well in all five of her starts last year, ending the season with a pair of wins. She is stepping up in class here. We'll see how she performs here. #4 DOWN TOWN SUGAR had a very solid 2014 campaign which included a fourth place finish in the Ontario Sires Stakes Derby. Speed figure-wise he's a very strong contender; the only concern is that he may need a start off the layoff. His 2014 debut was a weak effort.

Race 3: 4-5-8
#4 EFFORTLESS GAME has raced in Texas and Louisiana and shown promise; she moves into the Renee Wilson barn for her Ontario debut. She has a class edge here and should be tough to beat. #5 CORONA STRAW debuted in a Futurity trial in June, trailing the field of five. That was a tough field, containing Jumping Guitar, who won two Futurities, and Cause Im Dancing, who qualified to two Futurities and managed to win two races. She worked well on May 11th. I expect her to show improvement. #8 JESS SHAKE EM got three runner up finishes (one of which came by DQ) last year, including a second behind First Lady Katy (see race 2), who we know has gone on to show ability. She is certainly a contender in this spot.

Race 4: 3-5-2
Race 4 is the start of the $.20 Pick 4. #3 CARAWAY BLUE raced well against the toughest horses in Ontario last year, including Country Boy Deluxe, One Kool Wave, One Famous Glass and Mitford. He worked a quick 220 in 12.10 in Michigan prepping for this and would be a great bet at 7-1. #5 RECKLESS AN WILD is a multiple Stakes winner who took the win last year's Ontario Sires Stakes Derby. He ended the year in an allowance against older horses on a sloppy track, and raced a respectable third. He looked great in his May 6th work, and I'm expecting a good effort. #2 TTT KELLYS REGAN got two wins at the end of last year's meet, then went to Louisiana Downs for the winter where he had a tougher time competing. He comes back with some winter fitness under his belt, a good breeze on May 6, and a good shot to race well.

Pick 4 ticket: 3,5/3,4/1,5,7,8/1,11(AE) $6.40 ($3.20 with no AE)

Race 5: 3-4-7
#3 HOLEY FOOSE was one of the favourites in a race of this condition on opening day, rallying late to finish third. She stretches out an extra 50 yards today and can improve second off the bench. #4 DEAL A FORTUNE makes his Ontario debut for Renee Wilson here, as well as his debut against older horses. He was a winner at Retama Park for $5,000 maiden claiming last summer, and most recently finished second in the slop in an allowance at Evangeline Downs. If it happens to rain and the track is sloppy, this horse is the likely winner. Either way he's a factor. #7 SPEED OF LIFE showed talent as a two year old, despite some behavior issues that likely hindered her. She was vet scratched on opening day, but will be fine here. We'll see if her two year old promise translates here. Late Pick 3 wagering is offered here.

Race 6: 5-1-8
The Late Double starts in this very competitive race. #5 JESSASTONECOLDCORONA is a longshot I'm going to take a stab with. She raced in a Speed Index race last week going 220, making a late rally between horses. She steps into a tougher class here, and will need to improve to win, but I don't think it's impossible at all. #1 SHADE OF GREY raced a good rallying third on opening day, breaking from the outside gate on a day where the track was arguably inside favouring. The extra 50 yards will work to her benefit. #8 EYESA SPEEDY SIMON is the class of the group, exiting a win in last year's Ontario Sires Stakes. I'm not 100% sure he'll be ready right off the bench, and even if you think he will be you're likely taking a short price, but he's certainly got a good shot here.

Race 7: 1-11(AE)-4
#1 AGAINST THE CURRENT raced a very good third in his second start last year, leaving me to believe he had some talent. He worked on May 13th and looked very good. I'm expecting a big effort. #11 ZOOM ZOOMN actually finished first twice last year, but was DQd both times. He qualified to the Ontario Sires Stakes where he finished an okay fifth. He clearly has some ability and will be dangerous if he draws in off of the AE list. #4 DOWN ON CASH put in some good efforts last year, most notably a second behind Fiesty Icon, who went on to win a pair of allowance races. She should race well here.

Good luck and thank you to everyone joining us today!

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