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Tuesday, 4 November 2014

Are the Handle Gains at Gulfstream West as Good as they Look?

With October over, we have finished the first of two months of racing from Gulfstream Park West. The re-branding of Calder Race Course has proven to be successful, with handle growths compared to 2013 and 2012. But has it been as successful as we think?

     Here are the handle figures:

GPW Wed Oct 8 2014 - $1,434,678 - 10 races
GPW Thu Oct 9 2014 - $2,192,435 - 10 races
GPW Fri Oct 10 2014 - $2,930,049 - 10 races
GPW Sat Oct 11 2014 - $3,475,300 - 10 races
GPW Sun Oct 12 2014 - $2,630,470 - 10 races
GPW Mon Oct 13 2014 - $2,872,972 - 10 races
GPW Thu Oct 16 2014 - $2,145,811 - 10 races
GPW Fri Oct 17 2014 - $2,655,455 - 10 races
GPW Sat Oct 18 2014 - $4,092,233 - 10 races
GPW Sun Oct 19 2014 - $2,830,191 - 10 races
GPW Mon Oct 20 2014 - $1,885,744 - 10 races
GPW Wed Oct 22 2014 - $1,997,669 - 10 races
GPW Thu Oct 23 2014 - $2,157,233 - 10 races
GPW Fri Oct 24 2014 - $2,210,351 - 10 races
GPW Sat Oct 25 2014 - $3,519,650 - 10 races
GPW Sun Oct 26 2014 - $2,885,732 - 10 races
GPW Mon Oct 27 2014 - $1,792,186 - 10 races
GPW Wed Oct 29 2014 - $2,054,966 - 10 races
GPW Thu Oct 30 2014 - $2,342,457 - 10 races
GPW Fri Oct 31 2014 - $3,435,327 - 10 races
Total - $51,540,909 - 200 races
Average - $2,577,045/day - $257,704/race

CRC Fri Oct 4 2013 - $1,122,329 - 8 races
CRC Sat Oct 5 2013 - $856,150 - 9 races
CRC Sun Oct 6 2013 - $861,335 - 8 races
CRC Fri Oct 11 2013 - $1,130,032 - 8 races
CRC Sat Oct 12 2013 - $1,881,575 - 9 races
CRC Sun Oct 13 2013  - $986,411 - 8 races
CRC Fri Oct 18 2013 - $1,292,693 - 8 races
CRC Sat Oct 19 2013 - $1,028,557 - 9 races
CRC Sun Oct 20 2013 - $1,017,729 - 8 races
CRC Fri Oct 25 2013 - $1,066,367 - 8 races
CRC Sat Oct 26 2013 - $1,324,492 - 9 races
CRC Sun Oct 27 2013 - $806,761 - 8 races
Total - $13,374,431 - 100 races
Average - $1,114,535/day - $133,744/race

GP Sat Oct 5 2013 - $2,057,206 - 8 races
GP Sun Oct 6 2013 - $1,538,438 - 8 races
GP Sat Oct 12 2013 - $2,167,441 - 8 races
GP Sun Oct 13 2013 - $1,898,563 - 8 races
GP Sat Oct 19 2013 - $1,854,226 - 8 races
GP Sun Oct 20 2013 - $1,649,200 - 8 races
GP Sat Oct 26 2013 - $2,003,030 - 8 races
GP Sun Oct 27 2013 - $2,426,243 - 8 races
Total - $15,594,347 - 64 races
Average - $1,949,293/day - $243,661/race

2013 combined - $28,968,778 - 164 races
Average - $1,448,438/day - $176,638/day

CRC Wed Oct 3 2012 - $1,367,128 - 8 races
CRC Thu Oct 4 2012 - $894,088 - 9 races
CRC Fri Oct 5 2012 - $1,398,618 - 11 races
CRC Sat Oct 6 2012 - $1,286,381 - 12 races
CRC Sun Oct 7 2012 - $897,866 - 9 races
CRC Wed Oct 10 2012 - $1,243,043 - 8 races
CRC Thu Oct 11 2012 - $935,972 - 9 races
CRC Fri Oct 12 2012 - $1,129,669 - 10 races
CRC Sat Oct 13 2012 - $1,858,535 - 12 races
CRC Sun Oct 14 2012 - $1,075,987 - 8 races
CRC Wed Oct 17 2012 - $1,082,736 - 8 races
CRC Thu Oct 18 2012 - $837,982 - 9 races
CRC Fri Oct 19 2012 - $1,327,107 - 11 races
CRC Sat Oct 20 2012 - $1,293,111 - 12 races
CRC Sun Oct 21 2012 - $1,018,715 - 8 races
CRC Wed Oct 24 2012 - $958,236 - 8 races
CRC Thu Oct 25 2012 - $772,922 - 9 races
CRC Fri Oct 26 2012 - $998,807 - 10 races
CRC Sat Oct 27 2012 - $1,083,074 - 12 races
CRC Sun Oct 28 2012 - $870,337 - 8 races
CRC Wed Oct 31 2012 - $1,159,830 - 8 races
Total - $23,490,144 - 199 races
Average - $1,118,578/day - $118,040/race

     Average handle per race when compared to both Florida tracks in 2013 is up 45.89%, and 118.31% when compared to Calder in 2012.

    However, Gulfstream West's average per race handle is up only 5.76% from Gulfstream 2013. In 2013, Gulfstream was running head to head with Calder. It would not have been difficult to have grown handle at both tracks in 2013, but poor management cost both tracks.

    Let's say Calder cuts Sundays in 2013, a poor day for them in both 2012 and 2013, and moves them to Wednesday, their best performing day in 2012. A day of head to head competition with Gulfstream has now been eliminated, boosting handle at Gulfstream for Sundays, and they've just put themselves into a slot that was averaging $145,274/race in 2012 instead of the $114,757/race that 2013 Sundays were doing, a theoretical increase of 21.01%.

     So while it's nice to see gains at Gulfstream Park West, we have to understand that realistically, the only reason we're seeing these gains is because of CDI's poor management of Calder in 2013. Handle declines are a trend in North America, and Gulfstream Park West shouldn't be an exception. It is simply a beneficiary of a badly thought out situation the previous year. 

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