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Wednesday, 22 October 2014

Favourites in the Breeders' Cup Pt 2

We recently looked at the performance of favourites in the original Breeders' Cup races, now it's time to look at the races that have been added to the Championship event since then.

YEAR - ODDS OF FAV - FAV FINISH POSITION - FIELD SIZE - $2 WIN RETURN

BC Filly & Mare Turf
2013 - 1.5 - 1st - 10 - $5
2012 - 1.6 - 3rd - 11 - $20.40
2011 - 1.9 - 10th - 11 - $57.60
2010 - 0.9 - 2nd - 11 - $94
2009 - 2.2 - 3rd - 8 - $6.60
2008 - 2.6 - 7th - 10 - $11.80
2007 - 2.8 - 3rd - 11 - $25.40
2006 - 1.4 - 1st - 10 - $4.80
2005 - 2.3 - 2nd - 14 - $32.20
2004 - 0.9 - 1st - 12 - $3.80
2003 - 2.9- 1st - 12 - $7.80
2002 - 2.8 - 4th - 12 - $28.40
2001 - 2.65 - 11th - 12 - $14
2000 - 1.4 - 5th - 14 - $12
1999 - 3.6 - 1st - 14 - $9.20
# of winning favs - 5
Average odds of winning favs - 2.06
Average odds of favs - 2.09
Median odds of favs - 2.2
Average finish position of favs - 3.6 (4th)
Average field size - 11.46
Average field size when fav wins - 11.6
Average $2 win payout - $22.20
# of NA bred winners - 5
# of non-NA bred winners - 10

BC Turf Sprint
2013 - 2.7 - 1st - 13 - $7.40
2012 - 4.7 - 2nd - 14 - $15.80
2011 - 2.3 - 1st - 14 - $6.60
2010 - 3 - 5th - 14 - $15.80
2009 - 3.4 - 1st - 14 - $8.80
2008 - 4.4 - 4th - 14 - $36.50
# of winning favs - 3
Average odds of winning favs - 2.8
Average odds of favs - 3.41
Median odds of favs - 3.2
Average finish position of favs - 2.3 (2nd)
Average field size - 13.83
Average field size when fav wins - 13.66
Average $2 win payout - $15.15

BC Juvenile Turf
2013 - 1.3 - 3rd - 13 - $14
2012 - 3.9 - 2nd - 14 - $20.60
2011 - 4 - 7th - 14 - $25.20
2010 - 3.7 - 6th - 12 - $14.80
2009 - 2.4 - 1st - 12 - $6.80
2008 - 3.3 - 2nd - 12 - $13.60
2007 - 2.8 - 2nd - 12 - $27.20
# of winning favs - 1
Average finish position of favs - 3.3 (3rd)
Average odds of favs - 3.05
Median odds of favs - 3.3
Average field size - 12.71
Average $2 win payout - $17.45
# of NA bred winners - 4
# of non-NA bred winners - 3

BC Juvenile Fillies Turf
2013 - 2.8 - 7th - 14 - $15.80
2012 - 2.7 - 8th - 14 - $24.80
2011 - 2.8 - 8th - 14 - $14.20
2010 - 1.1 - 2nd - 14 - $29.20
2009 - 1.5 - 8th - 12 - $21.60
2008 - 2.6 - 3rd - 12 - $24.20
Average finish position of favs - 6th
Average odds of favs - 2.25
Median odds of favs - 2.65
Average field size - 13.33
Average $2 win payout - $21.63
# of NA bred winners - 4
# of non-NA bred winners - 2

BC Fillies & Mares Sprint
2013 - 3 - 1st - 12 - $8
2012 - 0.7 - 1st - 10 - $3.40
2011 - 1.4 - 5th - 12 - $42.40
2010 - 4.4 - 4th - 13 - $19.20
2009 - 0.8 - 2nd - 9 - $8.80
2008 - 1.8 - 2nd - 13 - $7.60
2007 - 2.1 - 6th - 10 - $18
# of winning favs - 2
Average odds of winning favs - 1.85
Average odds of favs - 2.02
Median odds of favs - 1.8
Average finish position of favs - 3rd
Average field size - 11.28
Average field size when fav wins - 11
Average $2 win payout - $15.34

BC Dirt Mile
2013 - 2.5 - 4th - 11 - $9.60
2012 - 2.6 - 6th - 9 - $32.60
2011 - 2.6 - 7th - 9 - $15.60
2010 - 2.7 - 11th - 12 - $77.40
2009 - 1.4 - 4th - 10 - $44.60
2008 - 1.2 - 9th - 12 - $14.60
2007 - 1.5 - 3rd - 8 - $9.40
Average finish position of favs - 6.3 (6th)
Average odds of favs - 2.07
Median odds of favs - 2.5
Average field size - 10.14
Average $2 win payout - $29.11

     In these races shorter histories, we see that the Dirt Mile and the two Juvenile Turf races are very good for chalk-faders, while the Turf Sprint and Filly and Mare Turf have been quite chalky. We also see that North American breds still tend to win the majority of the turf races, the Filly and Mare Turf being the exception.

     Again, use these numbers how you will. Have a great night!

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