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Thursday, 16 October 2014

Favourites in the Breeders' Cup Part 1

Here's something I thought was worth doing a bit of studying into: how do favourites perform in the Breeders' Cup? Which races are most likely to come up with a price? Which ones are more likely to come up chalky? Here's the first part of these stats, looking at the original six Breeders' Cup races. A second entry containing the rest of the races will be up likely tomorrow. Please note that for these stats I have only gone back to 1991 because I used Equibase results charts.

BC Classic
Year - Odds of fav - finish position - field size - $2 win payout
2013 - 1.7 - 9th - 11 - $10
2012 - 1.3 - 7th - 12 - $20.80
2011 - 3.6 - 5th - 12 - $31.60
2010 - 1 - 2nd - 12 - $12.40
2009 - 2.8 - 1st - 12 - $7.60
2008 - 0.9 - 4th - 12 - $29
2007 - 2.5 - 4th - 9 - $10.80
2006 - 1.1 - 2nd - 13 - $15.40
2005 - 2.4 - 1st - 13 - $6.80
2004 - 2.5 - 1st - 13 - $7
2003 - 2.6 - 2nd - 10 - $30.40
2002 - 2.7 - 2nd - 12 - $89
2001 - 2.35 - 8th - 13 - $15.80
2000 - 1.2 - 6th - 13 - $20.40
1999 - 2.3 - 7th - 14 - $41.20
1998 - 1.9 - 6th - 10 - $11.40
1997 - 1.8 - 1st - 9 - $5.60
1996 - 0.65 - 3rd - 13 - $41.70
1995 - 0.7 - 1st - 11 - $3.40
1994 - 3.5 - 2nd - 14 - $17
1993 - 1.2 - 2nd, 4th, 11th (entry) - 13 - $269.20
1992 - 2.1 - 1st - 14 - $6.20
1991 - 3.1 - 6th - 11 - $10
# of winning favs - 6
Average odds of winning favs - 2.05
Average odds of fav - 2.08
Average favourite finish position - 3.77 (4th)
Average field size - 12.54
Average field size when favs win - 10.5
Average $2 win payout - $32.39
Median win payout - $13.90

BC Distaff
2013 - 1.4 - 4th - 6 - $7.60
2012 - 1.7 - 1st - 8 - $5.40
2011 - 2.2 - 1st - 9 - $6.40
2010 - 1.5 - 2nd - 11 - $17
2009 - 1.9 - 8th - 8 - $18.20
2008 - 0.5 - 1st - 8 - $3
2007 - 4.5 - 1st/10th(co-faves) - 12 - $11
2006 - 2.7 - DNF (13th) - 14 - $29.80
2005 - 2.25 - 3rd - 13 - $63.50
2004 - 2 - 1st - 11 - $6
2003 - 0.6 - 4th - 7 - $83.40
2002 - 1.8 - 1st - 8 - $5.60
2001 - 1.15 - 7th - 11 - $26.60
2000 - 0.4 - 7th - 9 - $113.80
1999 - 1.6 - 6th - 8 - $8
1998 - 0.8 - 2nd - 8 - $8
1997 - 1 - 2nd - 8 -$11.60
1996 - 1.3 - 3rd - 6 - $6.80
1995 - 0.8 - 1st - 10 - $3.60
1994 - 1.8 - 6th - 9 - $96.20
1993 - 1.3 - 1st - 8 - $4.60
1992 - 2 - 12th - 14 - $7.40
1991 - 0.5 - 1st - 13 - $3
# of winning favs - 9
Average odds of winning favs - 1.7
Average odds of fav - 1.62
Average fav finish position - 4.2 (4th)
Average field size - 9.95
Average field size when fav wins - 9.66
Average $2 win payout - $25.13
Median win payout - $7.80

BC Turf
2013 - 1.5 - 2nd - 12 - $27
2012 - 2.4 - 2nd - 12 - $36.60
2011 - 2.1 - 4th - 9 - $15.60
2010 - 1.1 - 4th - 7 - $19
2009 - 0.9 - 1st - 7 - $3.80
2008 - 1.6 - 4th - 11 - $13.60
2007 - 0.9 - 5th - 8 - $8
2006 - 2.9 - 6th - 11 - $23.60
2005 - 3.65 - 3rd - 13 - $19.60
2004 - 0.7 - 2nd - 8 - $57.80
2003 - 2 - 7th - 9 - $6.40, $13.60 (DH)
2002 - 0.9 - 1st - 8 - $3.80
2001 - 1.4 - 1st - 11 - $4.80
2000 - 3.2 - 7th - 13 - $11.20
1999 - 1.6 - 1st - 14 - $5.20
1998 - 2.7 - 7th - 13 - $9.20
1997 - 1.9 - 1st - 11 - $5.80
1996 - 1.1 - 2nd,3rd,4th(entry) - 14 - $29.40
1995 - 3.75 - 3rd,4th(entry) - 13 - $9.90
1994 - 0.8 - 3rd - 14 - $35.20
1993 - 1.5 - 1st - 14 - $5
1992 - 0.9 - 2nd - 10 - $30
1991 - 2.8 - 5th - 13 - $86.20
# of winning favs - 6
Average odds of winning favs - 1.36
Average odds of fav - 1.92
Average fav finish position - 3.36 (3rd)
Average field size - 11.5
Average field size when fav wins - 10.83
Average $2 win payout - $21.83
Median win payout - $13.60
# of NA Bred winners - 11
# of non-NA Bred winners - 11

BC Sprint
2013 - 2.5 -1st - 12 - $7
2012 - 3.5 - 8th - 14 - $29.40
2011 - 2.8 - 3rd - 9 - $17.80
2010 - 4.1 - 11th - 12 - $12.40
2009 - 1.8 - 5th - 9 - $52.60
2008 - 2.1 - 3rd - 8 - $7.40
2007 - 2.5 - 1st - 10 - $7
2006 - 1.6 - 14th - 14 - $33.20
2005 - 0.7 - 7th - 11 - $25.80
2004 - 3.6 - 10th - 13 - $9.40
2003 - 2.1 - 6th - 13 - $47.60
2002 - 2.7 - 1st - 13 - $7.40
2001 - 3.5 - 7th - 14 - $21.20
2000 - 1.7 - 1st - 14 - $5.40
1999 - 3.7 - 1st,4th(co-faves) - 14 - $9.40
1998 - 2.5 - 6th - 14 - $9.60
1997 - 3.4 - 6th,13th(co-faves) - 14 - $35.20
1996 - 4.0 - 1st - 13 - $10
1995 - 3.3 - 4th - 13 - $31
1994 - 2.8 - 1st - 14 - $7.60
1993 - 3.2 - 11th - 14 - $12.60
1992 - 2.1 - 3rd - 14 - $39.40
1991 - 0.4 - 9th - 11 - $54.60
# of winning favs - 7
Average odds of winning favs - 2.84
Average odds of favs - 2.75
Average finish position of fav - 5.7 (6th)
Average field size - 13.04
Average field size when fav wins - 12.86
Average $2 win payout - $22.41
Median win payout - $11.20

BC Mile
2013 - 0.8 - 1st - 10 - $3.60
2012 - 1.8 - 1st - 9 - $5.60
2011 - 1.3 - 3rd - 13 - $131.60
2010 - 1.3 - 1st - 11 - $4.60
2009 - 1.4 -1st - 11 - $4.80
2008 - 1.8 - 1st - 11 - $5.60
2007 - 2.1 - 2nd - 13 - $18.40
2006 - 3 - 9th - 14 - $50.60
2005 - 1.35 - 2nd - 12 - $13.20
2004 - 3.8 - 12th - 14 - $35
2003 - 3.1 - 13th - 13 - $12.60
2002 - 0.8 - 2nd - 14 - $54
2001 - 4.1 - 7th - 12 - $12.20
2000 - 3.5 - 1st - 14 - $9
1999 - 3.7 - 5th - 14 - $16.40
1998 - 2.6 - 8th - 14 - $25.20
1997 - 2.1 - 1st - 12 - $6.20
1996 - 1.25 - 9th - 14 - $18.90
1995 - 2.55 - 1st - 13 - $7.10
1994 - 0.9 - 9th - 14 - $22.80
1993 - 1.3 - 1st - 13 - $4.60
1992 - 1.5 - 11th - 14 -$12.80
1991 - 2.2 - 9th - 14 - $55.40
# of winning favs - 9
Average odds of winning favs- 1.83
Average odds of favs - 2.17
Average finish position of favs - 5th
Average field size - 13.32
Average field size when fav wins - 12.89
Average $2 win payout - $24.10
Median win payout - $13
# of NA bred winners - 14
# of non NA bred winners - 8

BC Juvenile
2013 - 2.6 - 2nd - 13 - $23
2012 - 1.3 - 1st - 9 - $4.60
2011 - 1.1 - 2nd - 13 - $16.20
2010 - 1.4 - 1st - 10 - $4.80
2009 - 2.2 - 2nd - 13 - $63.20
2008 - 3.5 - 2nd - 12 - $9.20
2007 - 2.2 - 1st - 11 - $6.40
2006 - 3 - 2nd - 13 - $32.40
2005 - 1.3 - 3rd - 14 - $11
2004 - 2 - 5th - 8 - $58.60
2003 - 1.6 - 12th - 12 - $55.60
2002 - 2.5 - 10th - 13 - $10.20
2001 - 0.75 - 5th - 12 - $16.40
2000 - 2.4 - 14th - 14 - $14.60
1999 - 2.7 - 6th - 14 - $62.60
1998 - 2.7 - 1st - 13 - $7.40
1997 - 1.2 - 1st - 8 - $4.40
1996 - 1.4 - 3rd - 10 - $6.80
1995 - 2.1 - 4th - 13 - $12.40
1994 - 2.4 - 1st - 13 - $6.80
1993 - 0.7 - 8th - 11 - $8
1992 - 2 - 1st - 13 - $6
1991 - 2.1 - 1st - 14 - $6.20
# of winning favs - 8
Average odds of winning favs - 1.91
Average odds of favs - 2.01
Average finish position of fav - 4th
Average field size - 11.91
Average field size when fav wins - 11.37
Average $2 win payout - $20.31
Median win payout - $9.70

BC Juvenile Fillies
2013 - 2.9 - 4th - 10 - $66.60
2012 - 1.5 - 2nd - 8 - $9.80
2011 - 2.1 - 1st - 14 - $6.20
2010 - 4.2 - 1st,12th(co-faves) - 12 - $10.40
2009 - 3.7 - 3rd - 12 - $16.80
2008 - 1.6 - 1st - 13 - $5.20
2007 - 1.7 - 1st - 13 - $5.40
2006 - 2.6 - 1st - 14 - $7.20
2005 - 2.35 - 1st - 10 - $6.70
2004 - 2.3 - 1st - 12 - $6.60
2003 - 2.3 - 1st - 14 - $6.60
2002 - 0.8 - 1st - 10 - $3.60
2001 - 0.95 - 4th - 9 - $25.80
2000 - 2.5 - 6th - 12 - $96
1999 - 1.5 - 2nd - 9 - $67
1998 - 0.8 - 1st - 10 - $3.60
1997 - 2 - 1st - 14 -  $6
1996 - 1.6 - 1st - 12 - $5.20
1995 - 1.1 - 3rd - 8 - $9
1994 - 0.4 - 1st - 13 - $2.80
1993 - 1.9 - 3rd - 8 - $6.60
1992 - 1.2 - 1st - 12 - $4.40
1991 - 2.4 - 7th - 14 - $13.60
# of winning favs - 14
Average odds of winning favs - 1.85
Average odds of favs - 2.02
Average finish position of favs - 2.6 (3rd)
Average field size - 11.95
Average field size when fav wins - 12.36
Average $2 win payout - $17.54
Median win payout - $6.60

     Looking at these numbers, it's pretty obvious that the Juvenile Fillies is the most chalky of the original six. Favourites have won 63% of the past 22 runnings, have a median win payout of $6.60. The Distaff isn't much better, with a median payout of $7.80 and an average boosted by more >$50 winners than any other race. Value-wise, the Classic, Turf, Sprint and Mile look like races to target, with solid average win payouts, and medians that show the averages aren't strongly altered by bombs.

     Do what you will with these numbers. Have a great evening!

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