Monday, 18 August 2014

Ajax Downs Tuesday Selections

Welcome to the first regular card of Tuesday racing at Ajax Downs! We've got a great card to kick off the second part of the season, featuring an open allowance, two trials to the Ontario Sires Stakes Derby, and the $53,350 Ontario Sires Stakes Maturity! Here are my program selections.

Race 1: 2-1-4
The big switch! Welcome to Tuesday racing here at Ajax! #2 Winning Award is a debut runner who shows a pair of okay gate workouts prepping for this. He is out of a dam who was a three time winner in twelve starts, winning some trial races. I'll give him the edge to beat a pretty soft looking field. #1 Eyesa Speedy Simon finished second on June 29th, then competed in a Futurity trial last Sunday, went off as the favourite and offered nothing. His runner up finish suggests he could win here, but he needs to rebound from that last effort. #4 Dee Dees Winner has run the same even race in all three of her starts. I certainly don't think she'll win, but she doesn't need to have much talent to finish third in this field. The Early Double starts here.

Race 2: 4-3-5
The Early Pick 3 kicks off in this race. #4 Channelislandflyer was an easy winner of a $7,000 claiming non winners of three last time. Prior to that he was second behind multiple Stakes placed Silken Memories in an allowance event. If he breaks as well as he did last time he's dangerous. #3 Cat Vision had been knocking on the door in his first three starts of 2014 and finally got the job done in an optional $10,000 claiming event on August 3rd. He's a very nice horse, but he tends to have a late rally. 330 yards might be a bit short for him in this kind of spot. #5 Jj Maxwell started the season off facing the top level allowance horses, but was not effective. He dropped into an optional $7,000 claimer ran a good second. He is a nice horse, but his speed figures so far this year have been on the low side compared to the top two selections.

Race 3: 4-2-1
#4 A Plain Brown Rapper has had no luck at all this season. He did finally get a good race into him last time, finishing second to a nice mare in What Ta Wear. He earned a 92 speed figure for that race, which wins this easily, and I think the extra distance he gets today will be an asset. Hopefully today will finally be his day. #2 Ourfirstorphan has had notorious seconditis this year, finishing second in four of his five starts, mostly at the starter allowance level. This is a sideways class move in my opinion. #1 Caraway Blue should not have lost his last race, but he did with no excuse. His speed figure was low, and he just seems to be losing his killer instinct. It happens to horses as they get older.

Race 4: 9-8-5
This is the first of two trials for the Ontario Sires Stakes Derby. It is also the start of the $.20 Pick 4. #9 Make Me a Miracle finished a good second behind Cruwysn the Arctic on June 15th. Cruwysn the Arctic is one the favourites in today's Ontario Sires Stakes Maturity. This filly unfortunately lost the rider on July 13th, but that isn't her fault. She seems to have some class, and I don't mind her at all at 15-1. #8 Zoomin On Ice is the deserving favourite here. He is multiple Stakes placed and exits an easy win in a non winners of two allowance. It's tough to see him not running a good race. #5 Down Town Sugar has run three very good races in a row, a pair of close seconds on June 8th and 29th, and then a non winners of two allowance win on July 20th. He's never tried 350 yards but it should be in his wheelhouse.

Race 5: 10-8-5
This is the second of two trials for the Ontario Sires Stakes Derby. #10 Reckless an Wild, last year's Alex Picov Futurity winner looks very tough in this spot. He raced very gamely to be third by a head in his trial for the Adequan Derby Challenge before finishing a good fourth by a half length in the final. It took him a few starts but he seems to be rounding nicely into form. #8 Arctic Fame has qualified to the Picov Derby and the Adequan Derby Challenge this year, but has not been a factor in either. Today he gets to face Ontario Sired company, which could definitely make a big difference for him. #5 Sofar Gone broke his maiden by a length two back and came back to be third in a non winners of two allowance behind Down Town Sugar. His 64 speed figure gives him a chance here.

Race 6: 1-7-3
#1 Corona Four Twenty debuts here with a very nice workout, 250 yards from the gate in 13.66. His pedigree doesn't suggest much, but if he can show that same speed that he had in the workout then he is sure to be a factor here. #7 Another Shark is the horse to beat, but you have to be concerned that he is becoming a bit of a professional maiden, with ten starts so far. Regardless, he is almost always close and can not be discounted, especially with the drop in for a tag. #3 Jess Textin has run well in his last two efforts, a third for $3,000 claiming and a second in the straight maiden ranks. His form is solid and the rest of the field doesn't seem to be much. The Late Pick 3 begins here.

Race 7: 3-7-4
Here we have an open allowance for three year olds and up going 330 yards, and the start of the Late Double. #3 Streakinshagginwagon was three for three going into the Adequan Derby Challenge, including a win in the Picov Derby, but broke slowly and did not have enough late run to recover, finishing sixth. If you watch the replay, you see that he made up a lot of ground. With a clean break he can find himself back in the winner's circle. #7 Zip Kode had been second fiddle to Streakinshagginwagon in our three year old crop, but took advanage of Streakinshagginwagon's poor break and won the Adequan Derby Challenge. This multiple stakes winner is always dangerous when she gets the outside post. #4 Jessies Leavin You is riding a three win streak, albeit at lower levels. Her speed figures are solid and I think she can round things out.

Race 8: 9-7-4
Today's final race is our feature, the $53,350 Ontario Sires Stakes Maturity. To me, this race is all #9 Jesskissmytexas. He made his 2014 debut in his trial for this race and absolutely crushed, there was no competition. He's got a lot of talent, and I think today he will show it again. #7 Cruwysn the Arctic was the other trial winner. He had to fight to get the win there, but he proved best. It's tough to totally discount a horse who's won four of his five starts this year. #4 Not Looking to Shake was second behind Cruwysn the Arctic in their trial. He did one thing that really stands out in this field; finished third only a half length behind Mitford in a trial for the Picov Maturity. Don't toss this horse from your exotic wagers, he could be overlooked.

Good luck to everyone playing today!

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