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Sunday, 17 August 2014

Ajax Downs Sunday Selections

Welcome to Family Fun Day at Ajax Downs! It's the final Sunday card of the year and I'm in rush to get this posted, so here are my program selections for today's seven race card.

Race 1: 2-5-4
Welcome to Family Fun Day here at Ajax Downs! Our first race of the day is an Ontario Sired Starter Allowance. The Early Double starts here. #2 Down Home Girl had a couple of even efforts to kick off the meet, but she put it together on July 13th where she won an optional claimer, drawing off by a length. A repeat of that effort is good enough to win today. #5 Fastaz Task was beaten a half length in an allowance race on July 1st, and then came back to be third in an optional claimer. That was a bit of a regression from his allowance start, but still a respectable race. #4 Wild Roze finished a nose in front of Fastaz Task in their last start. She's capable of running well here, but she's not super consistent.

Race 2: 3-1-5
#3 Bold Six Love has been competing in the local Derbies and not racing poorly. He most recently finished 9th in the Adequan Derby Challenge, and while it looks bad on paper he really didn't race poorly. He did finish first in a Stakes race at Hialeah before being disqualified. I think the class drop is key for him. #1 Probie exits a win an optional $7,000 claimer where he beat a nice horse in Cat Vision. He's two-for-three at the 400 yard distance and looks strong here. To me, this race is between these two. #5 Hi N Dry has been second or third in four of her last five starts. She doesn't have the class of Bold Six Love or the winning record of Probie, but she's definitely the logical horse to round the field out. Remember that Pick 3 wagering starts here.

Race 3: 1-5-2
#1 Bodacious and Foxy debuted for a $5,000 claiming tag, ran a good fourth, and jumps up to the straight Ontario Sired maiden ranks. Luckily for him, he catches a field that isn't tough at all. With some second time out improvement, he should be good enough to win. #5 Arising Hero finished fourth behind Sweet Okey two weeks ago going 350 yards. Her comment for that race reads "closed belatedly," suggesting she will appreciate today's 400 yards. #2 Sweet Okey was not running well, but she rebounded on August 3rd, finishing third by a half length. Can she duplicate that? I don't know, but she doesn't have much competition here.

Race 4: 2-6-5
This race is the start of the $.20 Pick 4. #2 Waitin for Momma exits a good second behind multiple Stakes placed Zoomin On Ice. He's still looking for his first win of the season, but he's hit the board in three of six and seems logical here. #6 Noisyboy was a confident winner against Ontario Sired maidens on July 6th and came back three weeks later to be a good third against open non winners of two. His speed figures have increased in each start, it should be interesting to see what he can do today. #5 I Like Chics finished third behind Waiting for Momma on July 1st and fifth behind Noisyboy on July 27th. I do think this horse has some potential to be decent as he gains experience, but he'll have to find some improvement today if he's going to win.

Race 5: 7-2-3
#7 Hussey Too was racing at the starter allowance level, before dropping into a low level conditioned allowance, where she dropped the rider at the start. Today she takes another drop into $5,000 claiming, and almost certainly won't drop the rider. I'll take her at 15-1. #2 Code 36 has been racing for in the $3,000 claiming ranks, where he's run two good thirds this year. Here he takes a sideways class move, the tag is raised to $5,000, but this race is restricted to horses who haven't earned $2,500 in their last three starts. I see this eight year old running a good race. #3 Chissled N Fiesty drops down from an open non winners of three allowance. This mare has a tough time finding her way into the winner's circle, but she does grab place and show money on a regular basis. Last year she found good form in the late summer and fall months. I'll give her the call to round it out. Remember the Late Pick 3 starts here.

Race 6: 3-1-6
The Late Double kicks off here. #3 Mr Victory Six is a horse I've liked a lot since he came to Ontario, and he's yet to run a bad race. I was shocked that he got beat in the AQHA Maiden Challenge, but you can't win them all. Today he goes for a non winners of three allowance, and I think he'll be very tough. He's got the highest class rating by 16 points. #1 Mr Eazy has had a good 2014, with a win and two seconds, not to mention the fact that he qualified to the Adequan Derby Challenge. He was upset as the favourite last time, and second best again is how I see him today. #6 Three Points N Gone has raced twice this year and both have been respectable efforts. On July 1st he was second beaten a neck, then on July 13th he finished third after being bumped at the start. I don't see why he couldn't round out the triactor at 10-1.

Race 7: 2-6-9
Two year old Ontario Sired maidens wrap up today's card. #2 Shade of Grey debuted on August 3rd and ran a good second. She earned a good 43 speed figure that day. Today she cuts back from 330 to 250 yards, so she will need a sharp break, but if she gets away well she's the one to beat. #6 Dash for Dm didn't show much in his first two starts, but he seemed to put it all together on August 4th, finishing second by a head at today's 250 yard distance. You can't knock that effort. #9 Shakeurbooty debuts here for Nadia Marcoux. She gets the outside post which can be good for a first time starter, and shows a good 250 yard gate workout in 13.96 on July 16th. I like trying to get first timers in the mix.

Good luck to everyone playing!

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