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Tuesday, 8 July 2014

What's Next for Lexie Lou?

Now, this is just my speculation. Let me get that out of the way.

Lexie Lou got the crowd going when she made her move on the final turn in the Queen's Plate, and kept the drive going to get the win. The filly beat the boys. It was a fantastic race. The nice thing about fillies who beat boys on a high level is that they develop fan bases.

     So where does the 155th Queen's Plate winner go next?

After the race, trainer Mark Casse was quoted as saying "I honestly feel like this filly could run with any three year old filly in North America," making Untaple the exception. When questioned about going to Fort Erie on July 29th for the Prince of Wales, Casse said "A third race in a short time, a surface she's never been over. We'll see." That doesn't give fans much hope of a try for the Canadian Triple Crown. Then things got a bit interesting. "She may end up going to California. They have synthetic out there, she may want to try and go defend her crown south of the border."

     So Del Mar seems like a distinct possibility, due to their synthetic surface. Looking at Del Mar's Stakes schedule, there are two races that she could go in. On August 16th, there's the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks going nine furlongs on the turf. I have no doubt this filly will run on the turf in the future. However, Casse is already planning on running My Conquestadory in the Del Mar Oaks, and a Grade 1 doesn't seem like a wise spot for Lexie Lou's Graded Stakes debut. Two weeks later on August 31st, there's the Grade III Torrey Pines. It's a $100,000 race going a mile on the poly. To me, a logical Graded Stakes debut. 

     The other big possibility in my mind is the final leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, the $500,000 Breeder's Stakes, going twelve furlongs on the Woodbine turf on August 17th. Like I said, I don't doubt that she will race on turf in the future. The Breeder's, like the Plate, is restricted to Canadian breds, and it's purse is larger than the Del Mar Oaks and the Torrey Pines combined. They don't have to leave the province. The only question is the distance, she did seem to be getting maybe a bit tired in the final yards of the Plate. However, it's not as though any of the other three year old Canadian breds are proven at twelve furlongs.

     I'm going to predict that Lexie Lou stays in Ontario for her next start and races in the Breeder's Stakes. To me, it makes more sense than going to California. After the Breeder's, I predict she gets some more time off, then goes to Keeneland for the Grade 3 Valley View. 

     Again, just my speculation. It should be fun to watch this filly develop as she starts testing the water against tougher company. I certainly don't think her career will be limited to Woodbine.

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